AI for Business

Explore the best AI for Business — independent reviews, comparisons, pricing and step-by-step how-to guides, curated by Aizhi.

  • Astrostatistics

    Astrostatistics

    Astrostatistics is a discipline which spans astrophysics, statistical analysis and data mining. It is used to process the vast amount of data produced by automated scanning of the cosmos, to characterize complex datasets, and to link astronomical data to astrophysical theory. Many branches of statistics are involved in astronomical analysis including nonparametrics, multivariate regression and multivariate classification, time series analysis, and especially Bayesian inference. The field is closely related to astroinformatics.

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  • Kurt Keutzer

    Kurt Keutzer

    Kurt Keutzer (born November 9, 1955) is an American computer scientist. == Early life and education == Kurt Keutzer grew up in Indianapolis, Indiana. He earned a bachelor's degree in mathematics from Maharishi University of Management (formerly Mararishi International University) in 1978, and a PhD in computer science from Indiana University Bloomington in 1984. == Career == Keutzer joined Bell Labs in 1984, where he worked on logic synthesis. In 1991, he joined the electronic design automation company Synopsys, where he was promoted to chief technology officer. He subsequently joined the University of California, Berkeley as a professor in 1998. His research at Berkeley has focused on the intersection of high performance computing and machine learning. Working with a number of graduate students at Berkeley, Keutzer developed FireCaffe, which scaled the training of deep neural networks to over 100 GPUs. Later, with LARS and LAMB optimizers, they scaled it to over 1000 servers. Keutzer and his students also developed deep neural networks such as SqueezeNet, SqueezeDet, and SqueezeSeg, which can run efficiently on mobile devices. Keutzer co-founded DeepScale with his PhD student Forrest Iandola in 2015, and Keutzer served as the company's chief strategy officer. The firm was focused on developing deep neural networks for advanced driver assistance systems in passenger cars. On October 1, 2019, electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla, Inc. purchased DeepScale to augment and accelerate its self-driving vehicle work. == Honors and awards == Keutzer was named a Fellow of the IEEE in 1996. Recipient of DAC Most Influential Paper (MIP) award (24th DAC, 1987) for his "Dagon: technology binding and local optimization by DAG matching” publication. == Books by Keutzer == 1988. Dwight Hill, Don Shugard, John Fishburn, and Kurt Keutzer. Algorithms and Techniques for VLSI Layout Synthesis. Springer. 1994. Srinivas Devadas, Abhijit Ghosh, and Kurt Keutzer. Logic Synthesis. McGraw-Hill. 2002. David Chinnery and Kurt Keutzer. Closing the Gap Between ASIC & Custom: Tools and Techniques for High-Performance ASIC Design. Springer. (2nd edition appeared in 2007.) 2004. Pinhong Chen, Desmond A. Kirkpatrick, and Kurt Keutzer. Static Crosstalk-Noise Analysis: For Deep Sub-Micron Digital Designs. Springer. 2005. Matthias Gries and Kurt Keutzer. Building ASIPs: The Mescal Methodology. Springer.

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  • Node2vec

    Node2vec

    node2vec is an algorithm to generate vector representations of nodes on a graph. The node2vec framework learns low-dimensional representations for nodes in a graph through the use of random walks through a graph starting at a target node. It is useful for a variety of machine learning applications. node2vec follows the intuition that random walks through a graph can be treated like sentences in a corpus. Each node in a graph is treated like an individual word, and a random walk is treated as a sentence. By feeding these "sentences" into a skip-gram, or by using the continuous bag of words model, paths found by random walks can be treated as sentences, and traditional data-mining techniques for documents can be used. The algorithm generalizes prior work which is based on rigid notions of network neighborhoods, and argues that the added flexibility in exploring neighborhoods is the key to learning richer representations of nodes in graphs. The algorithm is considered one of the best graph classifiers.

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  • Vlado Keselj

    Vlado Keselj

    Vlado Keselj (Vlado Kešelj) is a Serbian-Canadian computer scientist known for his research in natural language processing and authorship attribution. He is a professor at Dalhousie University. == Education == As a high school student in Yugoslavia, Keselj competed in the 1987 International Mathematical Olympiad, earning a bronze medal. He earned his Ph.D. in 2002 at the University of Waterloo, with the dissertation Modular Stochastic HPSGs for Question Answering supervised by Nick Cercone. == Awards == Vlado Keselj is a recipient of the 2019 CAIAC Distinguished Service Award, awarded by the Canadian Artificial Intelligence Association (CAIAC). == Selected publications == Kešelj, V., Peng, F., Cercone, N., & Thomas, C. (2003, August). N-gram-based author profiles for authorship attribution. In Proceedings of the Conference of the Pacific Association for Computational Linguistics, PACLING 2003 (Vol. 3, pp. 255–264).

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  • Light scanning photomacrography

    Light scanning photomacrography

    Light Scanning Photomacrography (LSP), also known as Scanning Light Photomacrography (SLP) or Deep-Field Photomacrography, is a photographic film technique that allows for high magnification light imaging with exceptional depth of field (DOF). This method overcomes the limitations of conventional macro photography, which typically only keeps a portion of the subject in acceptable focus at high magnifications. == Historical background == The principles of LSP were first documented in the early 1960s by Dan McLachlan Jr., who highlighted its capability for extreme focal depth in microscopy and in 1968 patented the process. The technique was revived and further developed in the 1980s by photographers such as Darwin Dale and Nile Root, a faculty member at the Rochester Institute of Technology. In the early 1990s, William Sharp and Charles Kazilek, both researchers at Arizona State University, also published articles describing their technique and system setup for capturing SLP images. == Predecessor to stack image photography == Light Scanning Photomacrography offered a powerful analog tool for high-detail imaging in the age of film photography. It provided a comprehensive depth of field, making it invaluable in scientific and biomedical photography. As technology and techniques continue to evolve, LSP has been replaced by digital image focus stacking. This technique uses a collection of images captured in series at different focal depths, which are then processed using computer software to create a single image with a greater focus depth than any single image. == LSP technique and results == LSP involves the use of a thin plane of light that scans across the subject, which is mounted on a stage moving perpendicular to the film plane. The technique utilizes traditional optics and is governed by the physical laws of depth of field. By moving the subject through a narrow band of illumination, the entire subject can be recorded in sharp focus from the nearest details to the farthest ones. This analog process produces sharp and detailed images by slowly recording the image on film as the specimen passes through the sheet of light that is thinner than the effective DOF. Because the image is captured at the same relative distance from the camera lens, the resulting images are axonometric rather than perspective projection, which is what the human eye sees and is typically captured by a film camera. Because all parts of an LSP image are captured at the same distance from the lens, relative measurements can be taken from an LSP photograph and can be used for comparison. == Equipment and setup == A typical LSP setup includes: A stage that can move the subject perpendicular to the film plane. Light sources, in some cases modified projectors, are used to project a thin plane of light. A camera mounted on a stable stand such as a tabletop copy stand. In 1991, Sharp and Kazilek described their SLP system that used three Kodak Ektagraphic slide projectors with zoom lenses to create a thin plane of light. The projectors each had a slide mount with two razor blades placed edge-to-edge to create a thin slit for the light to pass through. The image was captured using a Nikon FE-2 SLR camera mounted above the specimen. Kodachrome 25 slide film was used to record the image and to minimize film grain size and maximize image sharpness == Commercial systems == A commercial SLP instrument was produced by the Irvine Optical Corp. Their DYNAPHOT system was based on a photomacroscope and could capture images on 4x5 film. The instrument came with two or three illumination sources and a motorized specimen stage. The system advertised a 2X – 40X magnification range and the ability to capture images in black and white and color. Other systems have been developed by Nile Root and Theodore Clarke and reported higher magnification (up to 100X). == LSP process == Alignment and Focusing: The light sources are aligned and focused to project a thin, consistent plane of light across the subject. Stage Movement: The subject stage moves at a controlled speed, scanning through the plane of light. Image Capture: The camera shutter is set to a long exposure or can be opened and closed manually. As the subject moves through the illuminated plane, it is recorded on the film. This process is very much like painting an image onto the film using photons instead of paint. == Applications == LSP was particularly useful in biomedical photography, where it was used to document magnified subjects with increased depth of field over traditional macro and micro photography. It has been employed to capture detailed images of biological specimens, such as imaging small insects and their parts. SLP has been used to document shell collections for scientific documentation and research. Other applications include forensic science, mineralogy, and the imaging of fractured surfaces and parts == Advantages and challenges of LSP imaging == === Advantages === Exceptional depth of field: Subjects are rendered in sharp focus throughout. High magnification: Detailed images at significant magnification without sacrificing DOF. Analog precision: Provides a non-digital solution with accurate image representation. Versatility: Can be used for a range of subject sizes, from macro to non-macro scales. === Challenges === Technical complexity: Requires precise setup and alignment. Exposure time: Typically requires long exposure times due to the scanning process. Contrast control: The highly directional lighting can create harsh shadows and high contrast, which may need to be managed. Digital competition: Focus stacking has largely replaced LSP in the digital era due to convenience and flexibility. == DIY contributions == Enthusiasts and researchers have contributed to the development and accessibility of LSP by creating and sharing DIY guides. These contributions have enabled others to build their own LSP systems using readily available materials and components. Nile Root's publications provide detailed instructions and recommendations for constructing an LSP setup. These DIY systems have allowed a wider audience to explore and utilize the benefits of LSP imaging in various fields.

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  • F-score

    F-score

    In statistical analysis of binary classification and information retrieval systems, the F-score or F-measure is a measure of predictive performance. It is calculated from the precision and recall of the test, where the precision is the number of true positive results divided by the number of all samples predicted to be positive, including those not identified correctly, and the recall is the number of true positive results divided by the number of all samples that should have been identified as positive. Precision is also known as positive predictive value, and recall is also known as sensitivity in diagnostic binary classification. The F1 score is the harmonic mean of the precision and recall. It thus symmetrically represents both precision and recall in one metric. The more generic F β {\displaystyle F_{\beta }} score applies additional weights, valuing one of precision or recall more than the other. The highest possible value of an F-score is 1.0, indicating perfect precision and recall, and the lowest possible value is 0, if the precision or the recall is zero. == Etymology == The name F-measure is believed to be named after a different F function in Van Rijsbergen's book, when introduced to the Fourth Message Understanding Conference (MUC-4, 1992). == Definition == The traditional F-measure or balanced F-score (F1 score) is the harmonic mean of precision and recall: F 1 = 2 r e c a l l − 1 + p r e c i s i o n − 1 = 2 p r e c i s i o n ⋅ r e c a l l p r e c i s i o n + r e c a l l = 2 T P 2 T P + F P + F N {\displaystyle F_{1}={\frac {2}{\mathrm {recall} ^{-1}+\mathrm {precision} ^{-1}}}=2{\frac {\mathrm {precision} \cdot \mathrm {recall} }{\mathrm {precision} +\mathrm {recall} }}={\frac {2\mathrm {TP} }{2\mathrm {TP} +\mathrm {FP} +\mathrm {FN} }}} With precision = TP / (TP + FP) and recall = TP / (TP + FN), it follows that the numerator of F1 is the sum of their numerators and the denominator of F1 is the sum of their denominators. If FP=FN F 1 = 2 T P 2 T P + 2 F P = T P T P + F P {\displaystyle F_{1}={\frac {2\mathrm {TP} }{2\mathrm {TP} +2\mathrm {FP} }}={\frac {\mathrm {TP} }{\mathrm {TP} +\mathrm {FP} }}} or F 1 = 2 T P 2 T P + 2 F N = T P T P + F N {\displaystyle F_{1}={\frac {2\mathrm {TP} }{2\mathrm {TP} +2\mathrm {FN} }}={\frac {\mathrm {TP} }{\mathrm {TP} +\mathrm {FN} }}} So, F1 = precision = recall If TP=FP=FN F 1 = 2 T P 2 T P + 2 F P = 2 T P 4 T P = 1 2 = 0.5 {\displaystyle F_{1}={\frac {2\mathrm {TP} }{2\mathrm {TP} +2\mathrm {FP} }}={\frac {2\mathrm {TP} }{4\mathrm {TP} }}={\frac {1}{2}}=0.5} or F 1 = 2 T P 2 T P + 2 F N = 2 T P 4 T P = 1 2 = 0.5 {\displaystyle F_{1}={\frac {2\mathrm {TP} }{2\mathrm {TP} +2\mathrm {FN} }}={\frac {2\mathrm {TP} }{4\mathrm {TP} }}={\frac {1}{2}}=0.5} To see it as a harmonic mean, note that F 1 − 1 = 1 2 ( r e c a l l − 1 + p r e c i s i o n − 1 ) {\displaystyle F_{1}^{-1}={\frac {1}{2}}(\mathrm {recall} ^{-1}+\mathrm {precision} ^{-1})} . === Fβ score === A more general F score, F β {\displaystyle F_{\beta }} , that uses a positive real factor β {\displaystyle \beta } , where β {\displaystyle \beta } is chosen such that recall is considered β {\displaystyle \beta } times as important as precision, is: F β = β 2 + 1 ( β 2 ⋅ r e c a l l − 1 ) + p r e c i s i o n − 1 = ( 1 + β 2 ) ⋅ p r e c i s i o n ⋅ r e c a l l ( β 2 ⋅ p r e c i s i o n ) + r e c a l l {\displaystyle F_{\beta }={\frac {\beta ^{2}+1}{(\beta ^{2}\cdot \mathrm {recall} ^{-1})+\mathrm {precision} ^{-1}}}={\frac {(1+\beta ^{2})\cdot \mathrm {precision} \cdot \mathrm {recall} }{(\beta ^{2}\cdot \mathrm {precision} )+\mathrm {recall} }}} To see that as a weighted harmonic mean, note that F β − 1 = 1 β + β − 1 ( β ⋅ r e c a l l − 1 + β − 1 ⋅ p r e c i s i o n − 1 ) {\displaystyle F_{\beta }^{-1}={\frac {1}{\beta +\beta ^{-1}}}(\beta \cdot \mathrm {recall} ^{-1}+\beta ^{-1}\cdot \mathrm {precision} ^{-1})} . In terms of Type I and type II errors this becomes: F β = ( 1 + β 2 ) ⋅ T P ( 1 + β 2 ) ⋅ T P + β 2 ⋅ F N + F P = ( 1 + β 2 ) ⋅ T P ( T P + F N ) ⋅ β 2 + ( T P + F P ) {\displaystyle F_{\beta }={\frac {(1+\beta ^{2})\cdot \mathrm {TP} }{(1+\beta ^{2})\cdot \mathrm {TP} +\beta ^{2}\cdot \mathrm {FN} +\mathrm {FP} }}\,={\frac {(1+\beta ^{2})\cdot \mathrm {TP} }{(\mathrm {TP} +\mathrm {FN} )\cdot \beta ^{2}+(\mathrm {TP} +\mathrm {FP} )}}\,} Two commonly used values for β {\displaystyle \beta } are 2, which weighs recall higher than precision, and 1/2, which weighs recall lower than precision. The F-measure was derived so that F β {\displaystyle F_{\beta }} "measures the effectiveness of retrieval with respect to a user who attaches β {\displaystyle \beta } times as much importance to recall as precision". It is based on Van Rijsbergen's effectiveness measure E = 1 − ( α p + 1 − α r ) − 1 {\displaystyle E=1-\left({\frac {\alpha }{p}}+{\frac {1-\alpha }{r}}\right)^{-1}} Their relationship is: F β = 1 − E {\displaystyle F_{\beta }=1-E} where α = 1 1 + β 2 {\displaystyle \alpha ={\frac {1}{1+\beta ^{2}}}} == Diagnostic testing == This is related to the field of binary classification where recall is often termed "sensitivity". == Dependence of the F-score on class imbalance == Precision-recall curve, and thus the F β {\displaystyle F_{\beta }} score, explicitly depends on the ratio r {\displaystyle r} of positive to negative test cases. This means that comparison of the F-score across different problems with differing class ratios is problematic. One way to address this issue (see e.g., Siblini et al., 2020) is to use a standard class ratio r 0 {\displaystyle r_{0}} when making such comparisons. == Applications == The F-score is often used in the field of information retrieval for measuring search, document classification, and query classification performance. It is particularly relevant in applications which are primarily concerned with the positive class and where the positive class is rare relative to the negative class. Earlier works focused primarily on the F1 score, but with the proliferation of large scale search engines, performance goals changed to place more emphasis on either precision or recall and so F β {\displaystyle F_{\beta }} is seen in wide application. The F-score is also used in machine learning. However, the F-measures do not take true negatives into account, hence measures such as the Matthews correlation coefficient, Informedness or Cohen's kappa may be preferred to assess the performance of a binary classifier. The F-score has been widely used in the natural language processing literature, such as in the evaluation of named entity recognition and word segmentation. == Properties == The F1 score is the Dice coefficient of the set of retrieved items and the set of relevant items. The F1-score of a classifier which always predicts the positive class converges to 1 as the probability of the positive class increases. The F1-score of a classifier which always predicts the positive class is equal to 2 proportion_of_positive_class / ( 1 + proportion_of_positive_class ), since the recall is 1, and the precision is equal to the proportion of the positive class. If the scoring model is uninformative (cannot distinguish between the positive and negative class) then the optimal threshold is 0 so that the positive class is always predicted. F1 score is concave in the true positive rate. == Criticism == David Hand and others criticize the widespread use of the F1 score since it gives equal importance to precision and recall. In practice, different types of mis-classifications incur different costs. In other words, the relative importance of precision and recall is an aspect of the problem. According to Davide Chicco and Giuseppe Jurman, the F1 score is less truthful and informative than the Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) in binary evaluation classification. David M W Powers has pointed out that F1 ignores the True Negatives and thus is misleading for unbalanced classes, while kappa and correlation measures are symmetric and assess both directions of predictability - the classifier predicting the true class and the true class predicting the classifier prediction, proposing separate multiclass measures Informedness and Markedness for the two directions, noting that their geometric mean is correlation. Another source of critique of F1 is its lack of symmetry. It means it may change its value when dataset labeling is changed - the "positive" samples are named "negative" and vice versa. This criticism is met by the P4 metric definition, which is sometimes indicated as a symmetrical extension of F1. Finally, Ferrer and Dyrland et al. argue that the expected cost (or its counterpart, the expected utility) is the only principled metric for evaluation of classification decisions, having various advantages over the F-score and the MCC. Both works show that the F-score can result in wrong conclusions about the absolute and relative quality of systems. == Difference from Fowlkes–Mallows index == While the F-measur

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  • Jean Véronis

    Jean Véronis

    Jean Véronis (3 June 1955 – 8 September 2013) was a French linguist, computer scientist and blogger, and a research professor at Aix-Marseille University. His research interests included natural language processing, text mining and standardisation. He was a founder of the field that is now called digital humanities. In 2006, his blog was listed among the 15 most influential by Le Monde.

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  • Interacting particle system

    Interacting particle system

    In probability theory, an interacting particle system (IPS) is a stochastic process ( X ( t ) ) t ∈ R + {\displaystyle (X(t))_{t\in \mathbb {R} ^{+}}} on some configuration space Ω = S G {\displaystyle \Omega =S^{G}} given by a site space, a countably-infinite-order graph G {\displaystyle G} and a local state space, a compact metric space S {\displaystyle S} . More precisely IPS are continuous-time Markov jump processes describing the collective behavior of stochastically interacting components. IPS are the continuous-time analogue of stochastic cellular automata. Among the main examples are the voter model, the contact process, the asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP), the Glauber dynamics and in particular the stochastic Ising model. IPS are usually defined via their Markov generator giving rise to a unique Markov process using Markov semigroups and the Hille-Yosida theorem. The generator again is given via so-called transition rates c Λ ( η , ξ ) > 0 {\displaystyle c_{\Lambda }(\eta ,\xi )>0} where Λ ⊂ G {\displaystyle \Lambda \subset G} is a finite set of sites and η , ξ ∈ Ω {\displaystyle \eta ,\xi \in \Omega } with η i = ξ i {\displaystyle \eta _{i}=\xi _{i}} for all i ∉ Λ {\displaystyle i\notin \Lambda } . The rates describe exponential waiting times of the process to jump from configuration η {\displaystyle \eta } into configuration ξ {\displaystyle \xi } . More generally the transition rates are given in form of a finite measure c Λ ( η , d ξ ) {\displaystyle c_{\Lambda }(\eta ,d\xi )} on S Λ {\displaystyle S^{\Lambda }} . The generator L {\displaystyle L} of an IPS has the following form. First, the domain of L {\displaystyle L} is a subset of the space of "observables", that is, the set of real valued continuous functions on the configuration space Ω {\displaystyle \Omega } . Then for any observable f {\displaystyle f} in the domain of L {\displaystyle L} , one has L f ( η ) = ∑ Λ ∫ ξ : ξ Λ c = η Λ c c Λ ( η , d ξ ) [ f ( ξ ) − f ( η ) ] {\displaystyle Lf(\eta )=\sum _{\Lambda }\int _{\xi :\xi _{\Lambda ^{c}}=\eta _{\Lambda ^{c}}}c_{\Lambda }(\eta ,d\xi )[f(\xi )-f(\eta )]} . For example, for the stochastic Ising model we have G = Z d {\displaystyle G=\mathbb {Z} ^{d}} , S = { − 1 , + 1 } {\displaystyle S=\{-1,+1\}} , c Λ = 0 {\displaystyle c_{\Lambda }=0} if Λ ≠ { i } {\displaystyle \Lambda \neq \{i\}} for some i ∈ G {\displaystyle i\in G} and c i ( η , η i ) = exp ⁡ [ − β ∑ j : | j − i | = 1 η i η j ] {\displaystyle c_{i}(\eta ,\eta ^{i})=\exp[-\beta \sum _{j:|j-i|=1}\eta _{i}\eta _{j}]} where η i {\displaystyle \eta ^{i}} is the configuration equal to η {\displaystyle \eta } except it is flipped at site i {\displaystyle i} . β {\displaystyle \beta } is a new parameter modeling the inverse temperature. == The Voter model == The voter model (usually in continuous time, but there are discrete versions as well) is a process similar to the contact process. In this process η ( x ) {\displaystyle \eta (x)} is taken to represent a voter's attitude on a particular topic. Voters reconsider their opinions at times distributed according to independent exponential random variables (this gives a Poisson process locally – note that there are in general infinitely many voters so no global Poisson process can be used). At times of reconsideration, a voter chooses one neighbor uniformly from amongst all neighbors and takes that neighbor's opinion. One can generalize the process by allowing the picking of neighbors to be something other than uniform. === Discrete time process === In the discrete time voter model in one dimension, ξ t ( x ) : Z → { 0 , 1 } {\displaystyle \xi _{t}(x):\mathbb {Z} \to \{0,1\}} represents the state of particle x {\displaystyle x} at time t {\displaystyle t} . Informally each individual is arranged on a line and can "see" other individuals that are within a radius, r {\displaystyle r} . If more than a certain proportion, θ {\displaystyle \theta } of these people disagree then the individual changes her attitude, otherwise she keeps it the same. Durrett and Steif (1993) and Steif (1994) show that for large radii there is a critical value θ c {\displaystyle \theta _{c}} such that if θ > θ c {\displaystyle \theta >\theta _{c}} most individuals never change, and for θ ∈ ( 1 / 2 , θ c ) {\displaystyle \theta \in (1/2,\theta _{c})} in the limit most sites agree. (Both of these results assume the probability of ξ 0 ( x ) = 1 {\displaystyle \xi _{0}(x)=1} is one half.) This process has a natural generalization to more dimensions, some results for this are discussed in Durrett and Steif (1993). === Continuous time process === The continuous time process is similar in that it imagines each individual has a belief at a time and changes it based on the attitudes of its neighbors. The process is described informally by Liggett (1985, 226), "Periodically (i.e., at independent exponential times), an individual reassesses his view in a rather simple way: he chooses a 'friend' at random with certain probabilities and adopts his position." A model was constructed with this interpretation by Holley and Liggett (1975). This process is equivalent to a process first suggested by Clifford and Sudbury (1973) where animals are in conflict over territory and are equally matched. A site is selected to be invaded by a neighbor at a given time.

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  • Artificial general intelligence

    Artificial general intelligence

    Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a hypothetical type of artificial intelligence that matches or surpasses human capabilities across virtually all cognitive tasks. Beyond AGI, artificial superintelligence (ASI) would outperform the best human abilities across every domain by a wide margin. Unlike artificial narrow intelligence (ANI), whose competence is confined to well‑defined tasks, an AGI system can generalise knowledge, transfer skills between domains, and solve novel problems without task‑specific reprogramming. Creating AGI is a stated goal of technology companies such as OpenAI, Google, xAI, and Meta. A 2020 survey identified 72 active AGI research and development projects across 37 countries. AGI is a common topic in science fiction and futures studies. Contention exists over whether AGI represents an existential risk. Some AI experts and industry figures have stated that mitigating the risk of human extinction posed by AGI should be a global priority. Others find the development of AGI to be in too remote a stage to present such a risk. == Terminology == AGI is also known as strong AI, full AI, human-level AI, human-level intelligent AI, or general intelligent action. The term "artificial general intelligence" was used in 1997 by Mark Gubrud in a discussion of the implications of fully automated military production and operations. A mathematical formalism of AGI named AIXI was proposed in 2000 by Marcus Hutter, who defines intelligence as "an agent’s ability to achieve goals or succeed in a wide range of environments". This type of AGI has also been called "universal artificial intelligence". The term AGI was re-introduced and popularized by Shane Legg and Ben Goertzel around 2002. Some academic sources reserve the term "strong AI" for computer programs that will experience sentience or consciousness. In contrast, weak AI (or narrow AI) can solve a specific problem but lacks general cognitive abilities. Some academic sources use "weak AI" to refer more broadly to any programs that neither experience consciousness nor have a mind in the same sense as humans. Related concepts include artificial superintelligence and transformative AI. An artificial superintelligence (ASI) is a hypothetical type of AGI that is much more generally intelligent than humans, while the notion of transformative AI relates to AI having a large impact on society, for example, similar to the agricultural or industrial revolution. A framework for classifying AGI was proposed in 2023 by Google DeepMind researchers. They define five performance levels of AGI: emerging, competent, expert, virtuoso, and superhuman. For example, a competent AGI is defined as an AI that outperforms 50% of skilled adults in a wide range of non-physical tasks, and a superhuman AGI (i.e., an artificial superintelligence) is similarly defined but with a threshold of 100%. They consider large language models like ChatGPT or LLaMA 2 to be instances of emerging AGI (comparable to unskilled humans). Regarding the autonomy of AGI and associated risks, they define five levels: tool (fully in human control), consultant, collaborator, expert, and agent (fully autonomous). == Characteristics == There is no single agreed-upon definition of intelligence as applied to computers. Computer scientist John McCarthy wrote in 2007: "We cannot yet characterize in general what kinds of computational procedures we want to call intelligent." === Intelligence traits === Researchers generally hold that a system is required to do all of the following to be regarded as an AGI: reason, use strategy, solve puzzles, and make judgments under uncertainty, represent knowledge, including common sense knowledge, plan, learn, communicate in natural language, if necessary, integrate these skills in completion of any given goal. Many interdisciplinary approaches (e.g. cognitive science, computational intelligence, and decision making) consider additional traits such as imagination (the ability to form novel mental images and concepts) and autonomy. Computer-based systems exhibiting these capabilities are now widespread, with modern large language models demonstrating computational creativity, automated reasoning, and decision support simultaneously across domains. === Physical traits === Other capabilities are considered desirable in intelligent systems, as they may affect intelligence or aid in its expression. These include: the ability to sense (e.g. see, hear, etc.), and the ability to act (e.g. move and manipulate objects, change location to explore, etc.) This includes the ability to detect and respond to hazard. === Tests for human-level AGI === Several tests meant to confirm human-level AGI have been considered. ==== Turing test ==== The Turing test was proposed by Alan Turing in his 1950 paper "Computing Machinery and Intelligence". This test involves a human judge engaging in natural language conversations with both a human and a machine designed to generate human-like responses. The machine passes the test if it can convince the judge that it is human a significant fraction of the time. Turing proposed this as a practical measure of machine intelligence, focusing on the ability to produce human-like responses rather than on the internal workings of the machine. The idea of the test is that the machine has to try and pretend to be a man, by answering questions put to it, and it will only pass if the pretence is reasonably convincing. A considerable portion of a jury, who should not be experts about machines, must be taken in by the pretence. In 2014, a chatbot named Eugene Goostman, designed to imitate a 13-year-old Ukrainian boy, reportedly passed a Turing Test event by convincing 33% of judges that it was human. However, this claim was met with significant skepticism from the AI research community, who questioned the test's implementation and its relevance to AGI. A 2025 pre‑registered, three‑party Turing‑test study by Cameron R. Jones and Benjamin K. Bergen showed that GPT-4.5 was judged to be the human in 73% of five‑minute text conversations—surpassing the 67% humanness rate of real confederates and meeting the researchers' criterion for having passed the test. ==== Ikea test ==== The "Ikea test", also known as the Flat Pack Furniture Test, involves an AI controlling a robot which attempts to assemble an Ikea flat-pack furniture product after having been shown the parts and instructions. As early as 2013, MIT's IkeaBot demonstrated fully autonomous multi-robot assembly of an IKEA Lack table in ten minutes, with no human intervention and no pre-programmed assembly instructions. The robots inferred the assembly sequence from the geometry of the parts alone. ==== Coffee test ==== Steve Wozniak proposed a test where a machine is required to enter an average American home and figure out how to make coffee. It must find the coffee machine, find the coffee, add water, find a mug, and brew the coffee by pushing the proper buttons. This test has been substantially approached across multiple systems. In January 2024, Figure AI's Figure 01 humanoid learned to operate a Keurig coffee machine autonomously after watching video demonstrations, using end-to-end neural networks to translate visual input into motor actions. In 2025, researchers at the University of Edinburgh published the ELLMER framework in Nature Machine Intelligence, demonstrating a robotic arm that interprets verbal instructions, analyses its surroundings, and autonomously makes coffee in dynamic kitchen environments — adapting to unforeseen obstacles in real time rather than following pre-programmed sequences. ==== Suleyman's test ==== Mustafa Suleyman's test proposes giving an AI model US$100,000 and asking it to obtain US$1 million. ==== Use of video-games ==== Adams, et al. propose that the ability to learn and succeed in a wide range of video games can be used to test AI intelligence. This range would include games unknown to the AGI developers before the test is administered. === AI-complete problems === A problem is informally called "AI-complete" or "AI-hard" if it is believed that AGI would be needed to solve it, because the solution is beyond the capabilities of a purpose-specific algorithm. == History == === Classical AI === Modern AI research began in the mid-1950s. The first generation of AI researchers were convinced that artificial general intelligence was possible and that it would exist in just a few decades. AI pioneer Herbert A. Simon wrote in 1965: "machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do". Their predictions were the inspiration for Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke's fictional character HAL 9000, who embodied what AI researchers believed they could create by the year 2001. AI pioneer Marvin Minsky was a consultant on the project of making HAL 9000 as realistic as possible according to the consensus predictions of the time. He said in 1967, "Within a generation... the problem of

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  • Pumping lemma for regular languages

    Pumping lemma for regular languages

    In the theory of formal languages, the pumping lemma for regular languages is a lemma that describes an essential property of all regular languages. Informally, it says that all sufficiently long strings in a regular language may be pumped—that is, have a middle section of the string repeated an arbitrary number of times—to produce a new string that is also part of the language. The pumping lemma is useful for proving that a specific language is not a regular language, by showing that the language does not have the property. Specifically, the pumping lemma says that for any regular language L {\displaystyle L} , there exists a constant p {\displaystyle p} such that any string w {\displaystyle w} in L {\displaystyle L} with length at least p {\displaystyle p} can be split into three substrings x {\displaystyle x} , y {\displaystyle y} and z {\displaystyle z} ( w = x y z {\displaystyle w=xyz} , with y {\displaystyle y} being non-empty), such that the strings x z , x y z , x y y z , x y y y z , . . . {\displaystyle xz,xyz,xyyz,xyyyz,...} are also in L {\displaystyle L} . The process of repeating y {\displaystyle y} zero or more times is known as "pumping". Moreover, the pumping lemma guarantees that the length of x y {\displaystyle xy} will be at most p {\displaystyle p} , thus giving a "small" substring x y {\displaystyle xy} that has the desired property. Languages with a finite number of strings vacuously satisfy the pumping lemma by having p {\displaystyle p} equal to the maximum string length in L {\displaystyle L} plus one. By doing so, no strings at all in L {\displaystyle L} have length at least p {\displaystyle p} . The pumping lemma was first proven by Michael Rabin and Dana Scott in 1959, and rediscovered shortly after by Yehoshua Bar-Hillel, Micha A. Perles, and Eli Shamir in 1961, as a simplification of their pumping lemma for context-free languages. == Formal statement == Let L {\displaystyle L} be a regular language. Then there exists an integer p ≥ 1 {\displaystyle p\geq 1} depending only on L {\displaystyle L} such that every string w {\displaystyle w} in L {\displaystyle L} of length at least p {\displaystyle p} ( p {\displaystyle p} is called the "pumping length") can be written as w = x y z {\displaystyle w=xyz} (i.e., w {\displaystyle w} can be divided into three substrings), satisfying the following conditions: | y | ≥ 1 {\displaystyle |y|\geq 1} | x y | ≤ p {\displaystyle |xy|\leq p} ( ∀ n ≥ 0 ) ( x y n z ∈ L ) {\displaystyle (\forall n\geq 0)(xy^{n}z\in L)} y {\displaystyle y} is the substring that can be pumped (removed or repeated any number of times, and the resulting string is always in L {\displaystyle L} ). (1) means the loop y {\displaystyle y} to be pumped must be of length at least one, that is, not an empty string; (2) means the loop must occur within the first p {\displaystyle p} characters. | x | {\displaystyle |x|} must be smaller than p {\displaystyle p} (conclusion of (1) and (2)), but apart from that, there is no restriction on x {\displaystyle x} and z {\displaystyle z} . In simple words, for any regular language L {\displaystyle L} , any sufficiently long string w {\displaystyle w} (in L {\displaystyle L} ) can be split into 3 parts, i.e. w = x y z {\displaystyle w=xyz} , such that all the strings x y n z {\displaystyle xy^{n}z} for n ≥ 0 {\displaystyle n\geq 0} are also in L {\displaystyle L} . Below is a formal expression of the pumping lemma. ∀ L ⊆ Σ ∗ , regular ( L ) ⟹ ∃ p ≥ 1 , ∀ w ∈ L , | w | ≥ p ⟹ ∃ x , y , z ∈ Σ ∗ , ( w = x y z ) ∧ ( | y | ≥ 1 ) ∧ ( | x y | ≤ p ) ∧ ( ∀ n ≥ 0 , x y n z ∈ L ) {\displaystyle {\begin{array}{l}\forall L\subseteq \Sigma ^{},{\mbox{regular}}(L)\implies \\\quad \exists p\geq 1,\forall w\in L,|w|\geq p\implies \\\qquad \exists x,y,z\in \Sigma ^{},(w=xyz)\land (|y|\geq 1)\land (|xy|\leq p)\land (\forall n\geq 0,xy^{n}z\in L)\end{array}}} == Use of the lemma to prove non-regularity == The pumping lemma is often used to prove that a particular language is non-regular: a proof by contradiction may consist of exhibiting a string (of the required length) in the language that lacks the property outlined in the pumping lemma. Example: The language L = { a n b n : n ≥ 0 } {\displaystyle L=\{a^{n}b^{n}:n\geq 0\}} over the alphabet Σ = { a , b } {\displaystyle \Sigma =\{a,b\}} can be shown to be non-regular as follows: Assume that some constant p ≥ 1 {\displaystyle p\geq 1} exists as required by the lemma. Let w {\displaystyle w} in L {\displaystyle L} be given by w = a p b p {\displaystyle w=a^{p}b^{p}} , which is a string longer than p {\displaystyle p} . By the pumping lemma, there must exist a decomposition w = x y z {\displaystyle w=xyz} with | x y | ≤ p {\displaystyle |xy|\leq p} and | y | ≥ 1 {\displaystyle |y|\geq 1} such that x y i z {\displaystyle xy^{i}z} in L {\displaystyle L} for every i ≥ 0 {\displaystyle i\geq 0} . Since | x y | ≤ p {\displaystyle |xy|\leq p} , the string y {\displaystyle y} only consists of instances of a {\displaystyle a} . Because | y | ≥ 1 {\displaystyle |y|\geq 1} , it contains at least one instance of the letter a {\displaystyle a} . Pumping y {\displaystyle y} to give x y 2 z {\displaystyle xy^{2}z} gives a word with more instances of the letter a {\displaystyle a} than the letter b {\displaystyle b} , since some instances of a {\displaystyle a} but none of b {\displaystyle b} were added. Therefore, x y 2 z {\displaystyle xy^{2}z} is not in L {\displaystyle L} which contradicts the pumping lemma. Therefore, L {\displaystyle L} cannot be regular. The proof that the language of balanced (i.e., properly nested) parentheses is not regular follows the same idea. Given p {\displaystyle p} , there is a string of balanced parentheses that begins with more than p {\displaystyle p} left parentheses, so that y {\displaystyle y} will consist entirely of left parentheses. By repeating y {\displaystyle y} , a string can be produced that does not contain the same number of left and right parentheses, and so they cannot be balanced. == Proof of the pumping lemma == For every regular language there is a finite-state automaton (FSA) that accepts the language. The number of states in such an FSA are counted and that count is used as the pumping length p {\displaystyle p} . For a string of length at least p {\displaystyle p} , let q 0 {\displaystyle q_{0}} be the start state and let q 1 , . . . , q p {\displaystyle q_{1},...,q_{p}} be the sequence of the next p {\displaystyle p} states visited as the string is emitted. Because the FSA has only p {\displaystyle p} states, within this sequence of p + 1 {\displaystyle p+1} visited states there must be at least one state that is repeated. Write q s {\displaystyle q_{s}} for such a state. The transitions that take the machine from the first encounter of state q s {\displaystyle q_{s}} to the second encounter of state q s {\displaystyle q_{s}} match some string. This string is called y {\displaystyle y} in the lemma, and since the machine will match a string without the y {\displaystyle y} portion, or with the string y {\displaystyle y} repeated any number of times, the conditions of the lemma are satisfied. For example, the following image shows an FSA. The FSA accepts the string: abcd. Since this string has a length at least as large as the number of states, which is four (so the total number of states that the machine passes through to scan abcd would be 5), the pigeonhole principle indicates that there must be at least one repeated state among the start state and the next four visited states. In this example, only q 1 {\displaystyle q_{1}} is a repeated state. Since the substring bc takes the machine through transitions that start at state q 1 {\displaystyle q_{1}} and end at state q 1 {\displaystyle q_{1}} , that portion could be repeated and the FSA would still accept, giving the string abcbcd. Alternatively, the bc portion could be removed and the FSA would still accept giving the string ad. In terms of the pumping lemma, the string abcd is broken into an x {\displaystyle x} portion a, a y {\displaystyle y} portion bc and a z {\displaystyle z} portion d. As a side remark, the problem of checking whether a given string can be accepted by a given nondeterministic finite automaton without visiting any state repeatedly, is NP hard. == General version of pumping lemma for regular languages == If a language L {\displaystyle L} is regular, then there exists a number p ≥ 1 {\displaystyle p\geq 1} (the pumping length) such that every string u w v {\displaystyle uwv} in L {\displaystyle L} with | w | ≥ p {\displaystyle |w|\geq p} can be written in the form u w v = u x y z v {\displaystyle uwv=uxyzv} with strings x {\displaystyle x} , y {\displaystyle y} and z {\displaystyle z} such that | x y | ≤ p {\displaystyle |xy|\leq p} , | y | ≥ 1 {\displaystyle |y|\geq 1} and u x y i z v {\displaystyle uxy^{i}zv} is in L {\displaystyle L} for every integer i ≥ 0 {\displaystyle i\geq 0} . From this, the above standard v

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  • Eduard Hovy

    Eduard Hovy

    Eduard Hovy is a Research Professor in the Language Technologies Institute at Carnegie Mellon University. He is one of the original 17 Fellows of the Association for Computational Linguistics. == Biography == Eduard Hovy received M.S. (December 1982) and Ph.D. (May 1987) degrees in Computer Science from Yale University. He was awarded honorary doctorates from the National University of Distance Education (UNED) in Madrid in 2013 and the University of Antwerp in 2015.

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  • Ellen Voorhees

    Ellen Voorhees

    Ellen Marie Voorhees (born March 13, 1958) is an American computer scientist known for her work in document retrieval, information retrieval, and natural language processing. She works in the retrieval group at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). == Education and career == Voorhees was born in Bensalem Township, Pennsylvania, and was the 1976 valedictorian at Bensalem High School. She completed her undergraduate studies at Pennsylvania State University, graduating in 1979 with a bachelor's degree in computer science. She attended Cornell University, where she received her master's degree and then went on to complete her Ph.D. in 1985. Her dissertation, The Effectiveness and Efficiency of Agglomerative Hierarchic Clustering in Document Retrieval, was supervised by Gerard Salton. Prior to joining NIST, she was a senior member of the technical staff at Siemens Corporate Research in Princeton, New Jersey. == Recognition == Voorhees was elected as an ACM Fellow in 2018 for "contributions in evaluation of information retrieval, question answering, and other language technologies". In 2023, Voorhees was awarded an honorary Doctor of Science degree from the University of Glasgow in recognition of her body of work in the evaluation of information retrieval, question answering, and other language technologies. In 2024, Voorhees received the Gerard Salton Award, a lifetime achievement award given by ACM's Special Interest Group on Information Retrieval (SIGIR).

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  • Large language model

    Large language model

    A large language model (LLM) is a neural network trained on a vast amount of text for natural language processing tasks, especially language generation. LLMs can typically generate, summarize, translate and analyze text in many contexts, and are a foundational technology behind modern chatbots. Biased or inaccurate training data can make an LLM's output less reliable. As of 2026, the most capable LLMs are based on transformer architectures, which, according to the 2017 paper "Attention Is All You Need", can be more efficient and parallelizable than earlier statistical and recurrent neural network models. Benchmark evaluations for LLMs attempt to measure model reasoning, factual accuracy, alignment, and safety. == History == Before the emergence of transformer-based models in 2017, some language models were considered large relative to the computational and data constraints of their time. In the early 1990s, IBM's statistical models pioneered word alignment techniques for machine translation, laying the groundwork for corpus-based language modeling. In 2001, a smoothed n-gram model, such as those employing Kneser–Ney smoothing, trained on 300 million words, achieved state-of-the-art perplexity on benchmark tests. During the 2000s, with the rise of widespread internet access, researchers began compiling massive text datasets from the web ("web as corpus") to train statistical language models. Moving beyond n-gram models, researchers started in 2000 to use neural networks as language models. Following the breakthrough of deep neural networks in image classification around 2012, similar architectures were adapted for language tasks. This shift was marked by the development of word embeddings (e.g., Word2Vec by Mikolov in 2013) and sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models using LSTM. In 2016, Google transitioned its translation service to neural machine translation (NMT), replacing statistical phrase-based models with deep recurrent neural networks. These early NMT systems used LSTM-based encoder-decoder architectures, as they preceded the invention of transformers. At the 2017 NeurIPS conference, Google researchers introduced the transformer architecture in their landmark paper "Attention Is All You Need". This paper's goal was to improve upon 2014 seq2seq technology, and was based mainly on the attention mechanism developed by Bahdanau et al. in 2014. The following year in 2018, BERT was introduced and quickly became "ubiquitous". Though the original transformer has both encoder and decoder blocks, BERT is an encoder-only model. Academic and research usage of BERT began to decline in 2023, following rapid improvements in the abilities of decoder-only models (such as GPT) to solve tasks via prompting. Although decoder-only GPT-1 was introduced in 2018, it was GPT-2 in 2019 that caught widespread attention because OpenAI claimed to have initially deemed it too powerful to release publicly, out of fear of malicious use. GPT-3 in 2020 went a step further and as of 2025 is available only via API with no offering of downloading the model to execute locally. But it was the consumer-facing chatbot ChatGPT in late 2022 that received extensive media coverage and public attention by 2023. The 2023 GPT-4 was praised for its increased accuracy and as a "holy grail" for its multimodal capabilities. OpenAI did not reveal the high-level architecture and the number of parameters of GPT-4. The release of ChatGPT led to an uptick in LLM usage across several research subfields of computer science, including robotics, software engineering, and societal impact work. In 2024, OpenAI released the reasoning model OpenAI o1, which generates long chains of thought before returning a final answer. Many LLMs with parameter counts comparable to those of OpenAI's GPT series have been developed. Since 2022, weights-available models have been gaining popularity, especially at first with BLOOM and LLaMA, though both have restrictions on usage and deployment. Mistral AI's open-weight models Mistral 7B and Mixtral 8x7B have a more permissive Apache License. In January 2025, DeepSeek released DeepSeek R1, a 671-billion-parameter open-weight model that performs comparably to OpenAI o1 but at a much lower price per token for users. Since 2023, many LLMs have been trained to be multimodal, having the ability to also process or generate other types of data, such as images, audio, or 3D meshes. Open-weight LLMs have become more influential since 2023. Per Vake et al. (2025), community-driven contributions to open-weight models improve their efficiency and performance via collaborative platforms such as Hugging Face. == Dataset preprocessing == === Tokenization === As machine learning algorithms process numbers rather than text, the text must be converted to numbers. In the first step, a vocabulary is decided upon, then integer indices are arbitrarily but uniquely assigned to each vocabulary entry, and finally, an embedding is associated with the integer index. Algorithms include byte-pair encoding (BPE) and WordPiece. There are also special tokens serving as control characters, such as [MASK] for masked-out token (as used in BERT), and [UNK] ("unknown") for characters not appearing in the vocabulary. Also, some special symbols are used to denote special text formatting. For example, "Ġ" denotes a preceding whitespace in RoBERTa and GPT and "##" denotes continuation of a preceding word in BERT. For example, the BPE tokenizer used by the legacy version of GPT-3 would split tokenizer: texts -> series of numerical "tokens" as Tokenization also compresses the datasets. Because LLMs generally require input to be an array that is not jagged, the shorter texts must be "padded" until they match the length of the longest one. ==== Byte-pair encoding ==== As an example, consider a tokenizer based on byte-pair encoding. In the first step, all unique characters (including blanks and punctuation marks) are treated as an initial set of n-grams (i.e. initial set of uni-grams). Successively the most frequent pair of adjacent characters is merged into a bi-gram and all instances of the pair are replaced by it. All occurrences of adjacent pairs of (previously merged) n-grams that most frequently occur together are then again merged into even lengthier n-gram, until a vocabulary of prescribed size is obtained. After a tokenizer is trained, any text can be tokenized by it, as long as it does not contain characters not appearing in the initial-set of uni-grams. === Dataset cleaning === In the context of training LLMs, datasets are typically cleaned by removing low-quality, duplicated, or toxic data. Cleaned datasets can increase training efficiency and lead to improved downstream performance. A trained LLM can be used to clean datasets for training a further LLM. With the increasing proportion of LLM-generated content on the web, data cleaning in the future may include filtering out such content. LLM-generated content can pose a problem if the content is similar to human text (making filtering difficult) but of lower quality (degrading performance of models trained on it). === Synthetic data === Training of largest language models might need more linguistic data than naturally available, or that the naturally occurring data is of insufficient quality. In these cases, synthetic data might be used. == Training == An LLM is a type of foundation model (large X model) trained on language. LLMs can be trained in different ways. In particular, GPT models are first pretrained to predict the next word on a large amount of data, before being fine-tuned. === Cost === Substantial infrastructure is necessary for training the largest models. The tendency towards larger models is visible in the list of large language models. For example, the training of GPT-2 (i.e. a 1.5-billion-parameter model) in 2019 cost $50,000, while training of the PaLM (i.e. a 540-billion-parameter model) in 2022 cost $8 million, and Megatron-Turing NLG 530B (in 2021) cost around $11 million. The qualifier "large" in "large language model" is inherently vague, as there is no definitive threshold for the number of parameters required to qualify as "large". === Fine-tuning === Before being fine-tuned, most LLMs are next-token predictors. The fine-tuning shapes the LLM's behavior via techniques like reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) or constitutional AI. Instruction fine-tuning is a form of supervised learning used to teach LLMs to follow user instructions. In 2022, OpenAI demonstrated InstructGPT, a version of GPT-3 similarly fine-tuned to follow instructions. Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) involves training a reward model to predict which text humans prefer. Then, the LLM can be fine-tuned through reinforcement learning to better satisfy this reward model. Since humans typically prefer truthful, helpful and harmless answers, RLHF favors such answers. == Architecture == LLMs are generally based on the tra

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  • Aravind Joshi

    Aravind Joshi

    Aravind Krishna Joshi (August 5, 1929 – December 31, 2017) was the Henry Salvatori Professor of Computer and Cognitive Science in the computer science department of the University of Pennsylvania. Joshi defined the tree-adjoining grammar formalism which is often used in computational linguistics and natural language processing. Joshi studied at Pune University and the Indian Institute of Science, where he was awarded a BE in electrical engineering and a DIISc in communication engineering respectively. Joshi's graduate work was done in the electrical engineering department at the University of Pennsylvania, and he was awarded his PhD in 1960. He became a professor at Penn and was the co-founder and co-director of the Institute for Research in Cognitive Science. == Awards and recognitions == Guggenheim fellow, 1971–72 Fellow of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 1976 Best Paper Award at the National Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 1987 Founding Fellow of the American Association for Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), 1990 IJCAI Award for Research Excellence, 1997 Fellow of the Association for Computing Machinery, 1998 Elected to the National Academy of Engineering, 1999 First to be awarded the Association for Computational Linguistics Lifetime Achievement Award at the 40th anniversary meeting of the ACL, 2002 Awarded the Rumelhart Prize, 2003 Benjamin Franklin Medal in Computer and Cognitive Science, 2005 Doctor honoris causa of mathematical and physical sciences, Charles University in Prague, October 30, 2013 S.-Y. Kuroda Prize of the SIG Mathematics of Language of the ACL, 2013 === Awarded history === On April 21, 2005, Joshi was awarded the Franklin Institute's Benjamin Franklin Medal in Computer and Cognitive Science. The Franklin Institute citation states that he was awarded the medal "for his fundamental contributions to our understanding of how language is represented in the mind, and for developing techniques that enable computers to process efficiently the wide range of human languages. These advances have led to new methods for computer translation."

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  • Markov switching multifractal

    Markov switching multifractal

    In financial econometrics (the application of statistical methods to economic data), the Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) is a model of asset returns developed by Laurent E. Calvet and Adlai J. Fisher that incorporates stochastic volatility components of heterogeneous durations. MSM captures the outliers, log-memory-like volatility persistence and power variation of financial returns. In currency and equity series, MSM compares favorably with standard volatility models such as GARCH(1,1) and FIGARCH both in- and out-of-sample. MSM is used by practitioners in the financial industry for different types of forecasts. == MSM specification == The MSM model can be specified in both discrete time and continuous time. === Discrete time === Let P t {\displaystyle P_{t}} denote the price of a financial asset, and let r t = ln ⁡ ( P t / P t − 1 ) {\displaystyle r_{t}=\ln(P_{t}/P_{t-1})} denote the return over two consecutive periods. In MSM, returns are specified as r t = μ + σ ¯ ( M 1 , t M 2 , t . . . M k ¯ , t ) 1 / 2 ϵ t , {\displaystyle r_{t}=\mu +{\bar {\sigma }}(M_{1,t}M_{2,t}...M_{{\bar {k}},t})^{1/2}\epsilon _{t},} where μ {\displaystyle \mu } and σ {\displaystyle \sigma } are constants and { ϵ t {\displaystyle \epsilon _{t}} } are independent standard Gaussians. Volatility is driven by the first-order latent Markov state vector: M t = ( M 1 , t M 2 , t … M k ¯ , t ) ∈ R + k ¯ . {\displaystyle M_{t}=(M_{1,t}M_{2,t}\dots M_{{\bar {k}},t})\in R_{+}^{\bar {k}}.} Given the volatility state M t {\displaystyle M_{t}} , the next-period multiplier M k , t + 1 {\displaystyle M_{k,t+1}} is drawn from a fixed distribution M with probability γ k {\displaystyle \gamma _{k}} , and is otherwise left unchanged. The transition probabilities are specified by γ k = 1 − ( 1 − γ 1 ) ( b k − 1 ) {\displaystyle \gamma _{k}=1-(1-\gamma _{1})^{(b^{k-1})}} . The sequence γ k {\displaystyle \gamma _{k}} is approximately geometric γ k ≈ γ 1 b k − 1 {\displaystyle \gamma _{k}\approx \gamma _{1}b^{k-1}} at low frequency. The marginal distribution M has a unit mean, has a positive support, and is independent of k. ==== Binomial MSM ==== In empirical applications, the distribution M is often a discrete distribution that can take the values m 0 {\displaystyle m_{0}} or 2 − m 0 {\displaystyle 2-m_{0}} with equal probability. The return process r t {\displaystyle r_{t}} is then specified by the parameters θ = ( m 0 , μ , σ ¯ , b , γ 1 ) {\displaystyle \theta =(m_{0},\mu ,{\bar {\sigma }},b,\gamma _{1})} . Note that the number of parameters is the same for all k ¯ > 1 {\displaystyle {\bar {k}}>1} . === Continuous time === MSM is similarly defined in continuous time. The price process follows the diffusion: d P t P t = μ d t + σ ( M t ) d W t , {\displaystyle {\frac {dP_{t}}{P_{t}}}=\mu dt+\sigma (M_{t})\,dW_{t},} where σ ( M t ) = σ ¯ ( M 1 , t … M k ¯ , t ) 1 / 2 {\displaystyle \sigma (M_{t})={\bar {\sigma }}(M_{1,t}\dots M_{{\bar {k}},t})^{1/2}} , W t {\displaystyle W_{t}} is a standard Brownian motion, and μ {\displaystyle \mu } and σ ¯ {\displaystyle {\bar {\sigma }}} are constants. Each component follows the dynamics: The intensities vary geometrically with k: γ k = γ 1 b k − 1 . {\displaystyle \gamma _{k}=\gamma _{1}b^{k-1}.} When the number of components k ¯ {\displaystyle {\bar {k}}} goes to infinity, continuous-time MSM converges to a multifractal diffusion, whose sample paths take a continuum of local Hölder exponents on any finite time interval. == Inference and closed-form likelihood == When M {\displaystyle M} has a discrete distribution, the Markov state vector M t {\displaystyle M_{t}} takes finitely many values m 1 , . . . , m d ∈ R + k ¯ {\displaystyle m^{1},...,m^{d}\in R_{+}^{\bar {k}}} . For instance, there are d = 2 k ¯ {\displaystyle d=2^{\bar {k}}} possible states in binomial MSM. The Markov dynamics are characterized by the transition matrix A = ( a i , j ) 1 ≤ i , j ≤ d {\displaystyle A=(a_{i,j})_{1\leq i,j\leq d}} with components a i , j = P ( M t + 1 = m j | M t = m i ) {\displaystyle a_{i,j}=P\left(M_{t+1}=m^{j}|M_{t}=m^{i}\right)} . Conditional on the volatility state, the return r t {\displaystyle r_{t}} has Gaussian density f ( r t | M t = m i ) = 1 2 π σ 2 ( m i ) exp ⁡ [ − ( r t − μ ) 2 2 σ 2 ( m i ) ] . {\displaystyle f(r_{t}|M_{t}=m^{i})={\frac {1}{\sqrt {2\pi \sigma ^{2}(m^{i})}}}\exp \left[-{\frac {(r_{t}-\mu )^{2}}{2\sigma ^{2}(m^{i})}}\right].} === Conditional distribution === === Closed-form Likelihood === The log likelihood function has the following analytical expression: ln ⁡ L ( r 1 , … , r T ; θ ) = ∑ t = 1 T ln ⁡ [ ω ( r t ) . ( Π t − 1 A ) ] . {\displaystyle \ln L(r_{1},\dots ,r_{T};\theta )=\sum _{t=1}^{T}\ln[\omega (r_{t}).(\Pi _{t-1}A)].} Maximum likelihood provides reasonably precise estimates in finite samples. === Other estimation methods === When M {\displaystyle M} has a continuous distribution, estimation can proceed by simulated method of moments, or simulated likelihood via a particle filter. == Forecasting == Given r 1 , … , r t {\displaystyle r_{1},\dots ,r_{t}} , the conditional distribution of the latent state vector at date t + n {\displaystyle t+n} is given by: Π ^ t , n = Π t A n . {\displaystyle {\hat {\Pi }}_{t,n}=\Pi _{t}A^{n}.\,} MSM often provides better volatility forecasts than some of the best traditional models both in and out of sample. Calvet and Fisher report considerable gains in exchange rate volatility forecasts at horizons of 10 to 50 days as compared with GARCH(1,1), Markov-Switching GARCH, and Fractionally Integrated GARCH. Lux obtains similar results using linear predictions. == Applications == === Multiple assets and value-at-risk === Extensions of MSM to multiple assets provide reliable estimates of the value-at-risk in a portfolio of securities. === Asset pricing === In financial economics, MSM has been used to analyze the pricing implications of multifrequency risk. The models have had some success in explaining the excess volatility of stock returns compared to fundamentals and the negative skewness of equity returns. They have also been used to generate multifractal jump-diffusions. == Related approaches == MSM is a stochastic volatility model with arbitrarily many frequencies. MSM builds on the convenience of regime-switching models, which were advanced in economics and finance by James D. Hamilton. MSM is closely related to the Multifractal Model of Asset Returns. MSM improves on the MMAR's combinatorial construction by randomizing arrival times, guaranteeing a strictly stationary process. MSM provides a pure regime-switching formulation of multifractal measures, which were pioneered by Benoit Mandelbrot.

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